What people are missing in conference realignment

Ah, it’s been awhile since I’ve waded into the conference realignment mularkey.

Why is that? Well, partly because I didn’t feel a particular need to quote Joe Biden. 

I also haven’t had much to add to the discussion. Many of us know the basics by this point, I think. 

But more critically, my hesitation is also about the potential for sounding downright stupid. 

That’s not a “me” problem, specifically, but I’m not immune. I’ve dropped some stinkers in the realignment prediction business while studiously trying to avoid doing exactly that. The minefield that is this game within a game is perilous. 

Granted, some of the worst offenders in that regard don’t really mind being galactically wrong. For them it’s not about being right or wrong. They’d prefer to make noise and get attention and the aftermath can be whatever it will be. Like a loud politician overpromising and under-delivering, the show is the show, and it is king above such trivial concerns as truth or decency.

But my point is that NO ONE is immune to stepping in it. 

And I’d usually prefer not to.

What compels me to jump back in is a fair bit of conviction about where this thing is actually headed, and it’s not an outline or theory that seems to be getting a whole lot of traction right now.

So, let’s talk about it some.

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Trying to get a handle on the future of the Big 12

Recently, I’ve been reading more message board and social media chatter from Big 12 fans, specifically Oklahoma and Texas fans, about the next round of realignment, and where their schools might ultimately end up.

So let’s roll up our sleeves and jump back into this puddle of mud, shall we?

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Could a 14-team Big 12 actually work?

As the Big 12 meanders its way toward an expansion that may or may not be inevitable (per “sources”), fans of the affected institutions continue to wait for some measure of resolution.  The good news for the eager applicants is a move to 14 is apparently still on the table.

I still think 12 makes more sense.  And if you read this, you’ll find out why.  But 14 has its advantages, including the more money thing, but more importantly (to me anyway), the opportunity to rebrand away from the toxic Big 12 name.  Yes!

If 14 is still a realistic scenario, let’s look at how it can actually work.

Once again, I don’t have any particular insider knowledge on any of this, which is pretty much useless right now anyway. The amount of misinformation out there at present is significant.  For that reason, trying to predict how expansion unfolds is equally pointless.  What’s perhaps more useful is attempting to apply logic to the situation to offer a recommendation or two.

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Big 12 Expansion Makes Sense: Here’s Why…

Trying to read the tea leaves and interpret/predict Big 12 expansion is mostly pointless in principle, because one is most assuredly going to be wrong.  And not just wrong, but often times spectacularly wrong.

Since I have no fear of being spectacularly wrong, you’re in luck!  You’ve come to the right place to read a few words on the subject.

First off, a primer.  That link should give you some decent insight.  And this one.  And maybe this one too.  If you don’t want to read all that, the short version recap is this:  The Big 12 is a conference that suffers a fragile ego, due in large part to its having been raided by other leagues earlier this decade.  Stuck at 10 teams and stuck with a TV contract that is by no means terrible but which still lags behind that of its competition (in particular, fellow “major” conferences Big 10 and SEC), several schools in the conference are seemingly unhappy and pushing for expansion.  Or maybe they’re just sort of mildly concerned.  Or maybe this is all an act and we don’t know.

This is the part of the process that I think confuses people the most:  They can’t predict what the institutions will do, and they can’t do that because each institution is subject to the whims of multiple individual people.  Presidents.  Boards of directors.  Powerful boosters.  Athletic directors and coaches (not really, but it’s best to be polite and include them anyway).  The point being, what if one of these people has a louder voice than the others?  What if said person is having a bad day?  Or is just a generally irrational person?  And what if the media and common layman can’t predict who might wield the most influence, what they might think on a given day, or even what they might think today?

You’d be served up a nice helping of “fuck if I know” ice cream, which is what all the reporting on this topic reveals.  The best one can do is try to approach this from a logical vantage point and guess at the things that seem to make sense.  That doesn’t mean the key figures in this play will act rationally at the end of the day, but it does give the observer a better understanding of perhaps what *should* happen.

And thusly, I’ve written well over 300 words without getting around to talking about expansion, which is what this article is supposed to be about.

Continue reading Big 12 Expansion Makes Sense: Here’s Why…