Ah, Kansas State football. Coming off a disappointing 2015 season full of injuries and disaster (when your wide receiver is taking snaps at quarterback, it’s a disaster), the program rallied around the athleticism and game management of quarterback Jesse Ertz to rebound to 9 wins in 2016. Naturally, Ertz went down to injury in 2017* to take away all of that positive momentum. Playing a pair of young kids at quarterback transformed consistent performance into wild highs (such as crazy comebacks against ISU/Texas Tech and a win in Stillwater against a Top 15 OSU) and wild lows (KU and TCU … though in fairness the lowest of lows came with Ertz still in the lineup vs. Vanderbilt). The end result was a somewhat disappointing 8 wins.
* Hmm, maybe all these quarterback injuries indicate a need for a re-evaluation of an offensive game plan that regularly calls for your quarterback to carry the ball 20 times a game.
In the offseason, Kansas State has suffered massive player and coaching defections, creating even more instability.
So what now?
First, a summary of the losses (as of this writing):
Offensive coordinator Dana Dimmel
Defensive coordinator Tom Hayes
All American cornerback D.J. Reed
Starting wide receiver Byron Pringle
Starting fullback Winston Dimmel
Starting tight end Dayton Valentine
Third wide receiver Dominique Heath
Backup halfback Dalvin Warmack
Backup lineman Breontae Matthews
Backup lineman Bryce Fitzner
Backup lineman Alec Ruth
Backup lineman Glenn Williams
Backup wide receiver Carlos Strickland
Backup RB/WR Bernard Goodwater
Backup DL C.J. Reese
Backup DL Tevita Fehoko
(Shoutout to the BringontheCats community for the aggregation)
In addition, departing seniors include regular starters Will Geary, Jayd Kirby, Cre Moore, Trent Tanking and the aforementioned Ertz (who won’t pursue an additional year of eligibility). Each kicking specialist (the top 3 kick returners, kicker, punter and longsnapper) all depart too.
So basically everyone is gone and the sky is falling.
On the one hand, yes, that all sounds completely awful. Those kinds of defections are atypical in seasons not involving a change at head coach (take from that what you will, Bill Snyder retirement conspiracy theorists). On the other, this program has been caught in a malaise since 2012 basically, never quite putting it all together due in part to a stubborn refusal to change and lack of innovation. Some new faces might simply be warranted right about now if the fans want to kick-start something fresh and exciting.
So this is all very glass half full/empty right now. Fittingly, I thought I’d approach an assessment of the team in that manner.
Let’s look at 2018 through each lens (positive and negative) and see where we end up.
Coaching
Optimist: Addition by subtraction. Dimel has been criticized for his playcalling for years, while Hayes has a unit that has been objectively so-so throughout the majority of his tenure. Their departures have cleared the way for young coaching talent like Andre Coleman, Collin Klein and Blake Seiler to make an even larger impact on the program. On offense, that means fewer quarterback keepers, less nepotism, and better utilization of talent. On defense, it means a more aggressive approach and fewer “easy” completions for the opposition. On the recruiting trail, it means more energy and better recruits. And there’s always Bill Snyder still at the top, who gets more out of less than anyone. This is all part of Bill’s plan.
Pessimist: Dimel has been massively underappreciated by the fan base throughout his tenure, and his knack for getting his players into one-on-one matchups in space will be sorely missed. With Hayes, you worry about the secondary taking an even bigger dip without him around to patch it together continuously, or even worse: the rock solid run defense ceasing to be a strength and the entire defense craters. Also, it’s a given that Dimel and Hayes were run off to clear the path for Sean Snyder to take over as head coach, perhaps as soon as this offseason. This is all part of Bill’s plan.
Realist: Change is inevitable, and you take the good with the bad. Perhaps the program will receive a (much-needed) boost on the recruiting trail, and each unit should have some fun new wrinkles to enjoy, but there will be bumps along the way without doubt (hello more delay-of-game penalties!). The positive that’s hard to deny: The staff has gotten much better in the diversity department, something that has been long overdue.
Offense
Optimist: The entire starting offensive line returns, and it all starts upfront. Add in a pair of better seasoned, talented quarterbacks (who proved they can provide a ton of excitement in ’17), the program’s best running back since probably Daniel Thomas in Alex Barnes, and some proven guys at wide receiver (Isaiah Zuber, Dalton Schoen) and you can expect this offense to rock and roll, same as always.
Pessimist: The receiving corps suddenly looks super thin and lacking in athleticism. The blocking will miss Dimel. There’s also no reason to expect the quarterbacks to get any more consistent in the short term — especially with one of them being a sophomore — and Alex Delton might be one hit away from retirement … in a run-heavy scheme. 🙁
Realist: That line has a chance to be special, and that’s a hell of a crutch to lean on while some of the other things sort themselves out. Expect frustrating moments in the passing game for sure, and if a deep threat isn’t established it could handcuff the team all year (the same could be said about a blocking back), but it’s hard to get too negative about the overall talent here.
Defense
Optimist: This collection of safeties could really wreck some shop, and paired with corners Duke Shelley, A.J. Parker and some talented newcomers, the secondary has a chance to be special. The line generally holds its own, and it should do so again. And half the fan base wanted last year’s starting linebackers off the field in favor of more athletic guys like Da’Quan Patton and Elijah Sullivan … and now they will get their wish.
Pessimist: There’s a reason Patton and Sullivan couldn’t get on the field. Reed will be missed to a ridiculous degree versus the passing game, while Geary’s departure will absolutely be a hit in the middle. In addition, the ends haven’t shown they can get to the passer, so why would they start now?
Realist: There are building blocks returning from a unit that might have underachieved some in ’17 (especially in relation to pass defense and the pass rush), so the potential for improvement is there. And even if they can only manage to tread water, the offense might be prepared to shoulder more of the load.
Special teams
Optimist: They’re always great.
Pessimist: They lost everyone.
Realist: There will be ups and downs, same as everywhere else.
In summation
Optimist: It’s time for a national championship run, baby!
Pessimist: Good God, we’ll be lucky to win 4 games.
Realist: Let’s go get another 8 wins and win another bowl game.
I think that’s where we are, honestly. It’s easy to see lots of concerning warning flags, and it’s hard to not scream from the heavens about the sort of limbo the program is in thanks to Bill’s will-he, won’t-he retirement dance (I’ve done so myself), but there’s enough here to rally around and make a decent season of … which is pretty much what this program has been since their last Big 12 championship in 2012.
Bill C. over at SBNation has this team projected ninth in the league in his S&P+ rankings, but essentially grouped with four other teams (all within 20 spots of one another in the national rankings). Factor in the typical Snyder overachievement and boom, you’re looking at another mid-level Big 12 finish.
Prepare thyselves, K-State fans. This is your past, your present, and your future.