This isn’t officially official per se, since the updated F/+ should impact things slightly, but I wanted to go ahead and release the updated Achievement Index in advance of the CFB Playoff pairings being revealed Sunday.
To cut to the chase, the Top 4 here looks like this: Alabama (1) vs. Stanford (4) and Clemson (2) vs. Michigan State (3).
Yeah, about Oklahoma…
The Sooners finished fifth. Do I think Oklahoma at this point deserves a playoff spot? Probably. Do I think the committee will follow suit and value Stanford above the Sooners? Probably not. This is what one might call a “power” ranking, and it just so happens to like Stanford.
So how happy am I with things? I’m not honestly bothered by the drama at the top. I’m happy North Carolina rallied a bit in the final week, which I didn’t expect, and when you look around the country and see 20 teams with double digit wins, I’m quite pleased to see so many of them represented in the Top 25 (it’s really, really hard to win 10-plus games).
What I don’t like: Florida getting a pass despite falling apart the last two weeks. But without a margin of victory component, I don’t imagine you can do much about that.
Before we get to this week’s complete rankings, here once again is the rundown of my methodology:
- Each team is ascribed a score derived from the combined efficiency rankings produced by the fine folks at Football Outsiders (specifically, Bill Connelley and Brian Fremeau), termed the “F/+” rankings. The basic gist of each set of rankings that goes into this merged list — individually the “FEI” and the “S&P+ Ratings” — is to evaluate a team based on its efficiency on individual plays. If you want a general sense of how “good” a team is, with only a few exceptions, you’re going to get an accurate reading from these.
- The scores pulled from the F/+ do not factor into an individual team’s ranking, however. Rather, they provide the basis for evaluating who said team has played. So for example, Wisconsin didn’t get any credit in regards to its own ranking for being the No. 35 team in the F/+, but it did get credit for facing Alabama, which ranks at No. 1. In reverse, Alabama didn’t get credit for being No. 1, but did get credit for beating No. 35. This is all about accomplishments. And for simplicity’s sake, all teams from below the FBS level got ascribed the same value: 129, which is one slot lower than the lowest FBS team (128).
- Basic weighting is applied such that, in general, road wins>neutral wins>home wins>bye weeks>road losses>neutral losses>home losses. There are discrepancies such that a particularly egregious home loss can hurt a team more than two road losses, or a loss to No. 1 can actually help a team more than being off that week. The actual weighting involved is the wild card here, as I have already tweaked it and may continue to do so. Lots of philosophical debates are involved in this process (For example: Is a road win worth more than two home wins? And is a neutral site loss to No. 1 worse or better than a road loss to No. 8?). These questions can go on for days, honestly, and much of it is dependent on an individual’s point of view. I tried to go with the above approach as much as possible and applied a fair, consistent system across the board, so we’ll see where the chips fall.
So here we go (asterisks denote conference champions):
| Rank | Team | Record | F/+ | AI |
| 1 | Ala* | (12-1) | 1 | 124.6 |
| 2 | Clem* | (13-0) | 2 | 140.125 |
| 3 | Mich St* | (12-1) | 8 | 148.1333333 |
| 4 | Stan* | (11-2) | 10 | 163.3571429 |
| 5 | OU* | (11-1) | 3 | 199.8571429 |
| 6 | Iowa | (12-1) | 24 | 207.4166667 |
| 7 | Fla | (10-3) | 18 | 209.2 |
| 8 | OSU | (11-1) | 4 | 216.3636364 |
| 9 | ND | (10-2) | 5 | 227 |
| 10 | BG* | (10-3) | 23 | 242.7 |
| 11 | OkSt | (10-2) | 28 | 254.2 |
| 12 | Hou* | (12-1) | 32 | 258.0833333 |
| 13 | Temple | (10-3) | 33 | 265.2 |
| 14 | WKU* | (11-2) | 17 | 265.2727273 |
| 15 | NW | (10-2) | 44 | 265.4 |
| 16 | TCU | (10-2) | 13 | 271.5 |
| 17 | USC | (8-5) | 16 | 282 |
| 18 | Mich | (9-3) | 11 | 288 |
| 19 | UNC | (11-2) | 19 | 299.0909091 |
| 20 | FSU | (10-2) | 9 | 304.9 |
| 21 | LSU | (8-3) | 14 | 312.125 |
| 22 | Ole Miss | (9-3) | 6 | 314.7777778 |
| 23 | Miss St | (8-4) | 25 | 326.875 |
| 24 | Uga | (9-3) | 34 | 328.3333333 |
| 25 | Memph | (9-3) | 27 | 330 |
The playoff committee hasn’t been talking about Bowling Green for a New Year’s Six game (all recent talk has focused on Houston), but they’ve got a case.
| Rank | Team | Record | F/+ | AI |
| 26 | Tenn | (8-4) | 20 | 338 |
| 27 | Ore | (9-3) | 29 | 343.1111111 |
| 28 | App St | (10-2) | 39 | 353 |
| 29 | Utah | (9-3) | 31 | 354.2222222 |
| 30 | Navy | (9-2) | 12 | 358.4444444 |
| 31 | Bay | (9-3) | 7 | 359 |
| 32 | Mia | (8-4) | 63 | 359.875 |
| 33 | Wis | (9-3) | 35 | 363.8888889 |
| 34 | Pitt | (8-4) | 41 | 370.5 |
| 35 | BYU | (9-3) | 36 | 384.6666667 |
| 36 | aTm | (8-4) | 38 | 385.25 |
| 37 | UCLA | (8-4) | 30 | 400.875 |
| 38 | Toledo | (9-2) | 22 | 401.8888889 |
| 39 | SouthMiss | (9-4) | 50 | 417.8888889 |
| 40 | TT | (7-5) | 52 | 418.4285714 |
| 41 | USF | (8-4) | 37 | 418.75 |
| 42 | SDSt* | (10-3) | 51 | 429.9 |
| 43 | Ark St* | (9-3) | 71 | 430.8888889 |
| 44 | Cal | (7-5) | 45 | 437.2857143 |
| 45 | PSU | (7-5) | 47 | 448.8571429 |
| 46 | NCSt | (7-5) | 42 | 466.5714286 |
| 47 | Lville | (7-5) | 43 | 471.8571429 |
| 48 | Ark | (7-5) | 15 | 473.5714286 |
| 49 | Marsh | (9-3) | 54 | 478.7777778 |
| 50 | W. Mich | (7-5) | 48 | 481.7142857 |
How about Arkansas State? Another conference title. Another new coach. Another conference title. Another…
| Rank | Team | Record | F/+ | AI |
| 51 | Aub | (6-6) | 56 | 482 |
| 52 | WVU | (7-5) | 26 | 482.7142857 |
| 53 | WSU | (8-4) | 55 | 511.375 |
| 54 | N. Illinois | (8-5) | 53 | 523.75 |
| 55 | LaTech | (8-4) | 62 | 529.375 |
| 56 | Cinci | (7-5) | 65 | 546.5714286 |
| 57 | Ga South | (8-4) | 46 | 551.125 |
| 58 | AF | (8-5) | 61 | 553.125 |
| 59 | Ohio | (8-4) | 73 | 554.125 |
| 60 | C. Mich | (7-5) | 66 | 555.2857143 |
| 61 | K-State | (6-6) | 79 | 568.6666667 |
| 62 | Boise | (8-4) | 49 | 582.375 |
| 63 | Akron | (7-5) | 80 | 601.1428571 |
| 64 | Duke | (7-5) | 72 | 605.2857143 |
| 65 | Ind | (6-6) | 64 | 608.8333333 |
| 66 | Ariz | (6-6) | 86 | 632.8333333 |
| 67 | Wash | (6-6) | 21 | 645.8333333 |
| 68 | Minn | (5-7) | 60 | 653.2 |
| 69 | ASU | (6-6) | 57 | 655.1666667 |
| 70 | Tulsa | (6-6) | 95 | 656.8333333 |
| 71 | M Tenn | (7-5) | 77 | 661.2857143 |
| 72 | VaTech | (6-6) | 58 | 670.8333333 |
| 73 | Uconn | (6-6) | 78 | 703.5 |
| 74 | CSU | (7-5) | 83 | 713.7142857 |
| 75 | Illinois | (5-7) | 67 | 793 |
I’m proud of my Wildcats clawing their way to bowl eligibility.
| Rank | Team | Record | F/+ | AI |
| 76 | Texas | (5-7) | 82 | 794.2 |
| 77 | UtSt | (6-6) | 59 | 795.8333333 |
| 78 | Mizz | (5-7) | 75 | 840.6 |
| 79 | ECU | (5-7) | 70 | 872 |
| 80 | UNM | (7-5) | 98 | 882.1428571 |
| 81 | Ken | (5-7) | 88 | 903.6 |
| 82 | Neb | (5-7) | 40 | 916.8 |
| 83 | Vand | (4-8) | 84 | 981.75 |
| 84 | Syr | (4-8) | 85 | 1026.25 |
| 85 | Nev | (6-6) | 99 | 1052.833333 |
| 86 | Ga St | (6-6) | 97 | 1083.166667 |
| 87 | Rut | (4-8) | 102 | 1091.5 |
| 88 | UVA | (4-8) | 81 | 1132.5 |
| 89 | ODU | (5-7) | 116 | 1154.8 |
| 90 | SouthAla | (5-7) | 106 | 1168.4 |
| 91 | Rice | (5-7) | 123 | 1191.4 |
| 92 | Buff | (5-7) | 91 | 1198.8 |
| 93 | SJ St | (5-7) | 92 | 1200.2 |
| 94 | Maryland | (3-9) | 76 | 1225.333333 |
| 95 | FIU | (5-7) | 110 | 1233.6 |
| 96 | Colo | (4-9) | 93 | 1281.75 |
| 97 | UTEP | (5-7) | 125 | 1299.2 |
| 98 | IowaSt | (3-9) | 74 | 1317.666667 |
| 99 | WF | (3-9) | 89 | 1512.333333 |
| 100 | Troy | (4-8) | 96 | 1579.75 |
Likewise, props to Charlie Strong for that win over Baylor.
| Rank | Team | Record | F/+ | AI |
| 101 | Idaho | (4-8) | 115 | 1616.75 |
| 102 | GT | (3-9) | 68 | 1618.333333 |
| 103 | SoCar | (3-9) | 87 | 1757.333333 |
| 104 | BC | (3-9) | 69 | 1784.666667 |
| 105 | Ball St | (3-9) | 108 | 1905.333333 |
| 106 | ULL | (4-8) | 101 | 1954.5 |
| 107 | Fresno | (3-9) | 105 | 2095.333333 |
| 108 | KentSt | (3-9) | 109 | 2118.666667 |
| 109 | Tulane | (3-9) | 119 | 2128.666667 |
| 110 | Umass | (3-9) | 100 | 2234.666667 |
| 111 | Miami Oh | (3-9) | 111 | 2258.666667 |
| 112 | UNLV | (3-9) | 103 | 2270.666667 |
| 113 | FAU | (3-9) | 94 | 2490 |
| 114 | Tx St | (3-9) | 112 | 2492.333333 |
| 115 | NM St | (3-9) | 117 | 2510.666667 |
| 116 | OregSt | (2-10) | 114 | 2519.5 |
| 117 | Hawaii | (3-10) | 122 | 2536.666667 |
| 118 | UTSA | (3-9) | 107 | 2632 |
| 119 | Pur | (2-10) | 90 | 2663.5 |
| 120 | SMU | (2-10) | 104 | 2913 |
| 121 | La-Mon | (2-11) | 120 | 4048 |
| 122 | Wyo | (2-10) | 118 | 4104 |
| 123 | Char | (2-10) | 124 | 4378 |
| 124 | Army | (2-9) | 113 | 4630 |
| 125 | KU | (0-12) | 126 | 6402 |
| 126 | UNT | (1-11) | 127 | 8169 |
| 127 | UCF | (0-12) | 128 | 8612 |
| 128 | E. Mich | (1-11) | 121 | 8676 |
I’ve got nothing else. Sleep beckons.
Week 13 rankings
Week 12 rankings
Week 11 rankings
Week 10 rankings
Week 9 rankings
Week 8 rankings
Week 7 rankings
Week 6 rankings
Week 5 rankings
Week 4 rankings
Week 3 rankings
Week 2 rankings
Anyway, more to discuss potentially, so feel free to comment below or shoot me a note on Facebook. Thanks for reading!