We’ve got a Top 4 in the Achievement Index

This isn’t officially official per se, since the updated F/+ should impact things slightly, but I wanted to go ahead and release the updated Achievement Index in advance of the CFB Playoff pairings being revealed Sunday.

To cut to the chase, the Top 4 here looks like this: Alabama (1) vs. Stanford (4) and Clemson (2) vs. Michigan State (3).

Yeah, about Oklahoma…

The Sooners finished fifth.  Do I think Oklahoma at this point deserves a playoff spot?  Probably.  Do I think the committee will follow suit and value Stanford above the Sooners?  Probably not.  This is what one might call a “power” ranking, and it just so happens to like Stanford.

So how happy am I with things?  I’m not honestly bothered by the drama at the top. I’m happy North Carolina rallied a bit in the final week, which I didn’t expect, and when you look around the country and see 20 teams with double digit wins, I’m quite pleased to see so many of them represented in the Top 25 (it’s really, really hard to win 10-plus games).

What I don’t like:  Florida getting a pass despite falling apart the last two weeks.  But without a margin of victory component, I don’t imagine you can do much about that.

Before we get to this week’s complete rankings, here once again is the rundown of my methodology:

  1. Each team is ascribed a score derived from the combined efficiency rankings produced by the fine folks at Football Outsiders (specifically, Bill Connelley and Brian Fremeau), termed the “F/+” rankings.  The basic gist of each set of rankings that goes into this merged list — individually the “FEI” and the “S&P+ Ratings” — is to evaluate a team based on its efficiency on individual plays.  If you want a general sense of how “good” a team is, with only a few exceptions, you’re going to get an accurate reading from these.
  2. The scores pulled from the F/+ do not factor into an individual team’s ranking, however.  Rather, they provide the basis for evaluating who said team has played.  So for example, Wisconsin didn’t get any credit in regards to its own ranking for being the No. 35 team in the F/+, but it did get credit for facing Alabama, which ranks at No. 1.  In reverse, Alabama didn’t get credit for being No. 1, but did get credit for beating No. 35.  This is all about accomplishments. And for simplicity’s sake, all teams from below the FBS level got ascribed the same value: 129, which is one slot lower than the lowest FBS team (128).
  3. Basic weighting is applied such that, in general, road wins>neutral wins>home wins>bye weeks>road losses>neutral losses>home losses.  There are discrepancies such that a particularly egregious home loss can hurt a team more than two road losses, or a loss to No. 1 can actually help a team more than being off that week.  The actual weighting involved is the wild card here, as I have already tweaked it and may continue to do so.  Lots of philosophical debates are involved in this process (For example: Is a road win worth more than two home wins?  And is a neutral site loss to No. 1 worse or better than a road loss to No. 8?).  These questions can go on for days, honestly, and much of it is dependent on an individual’s point of view.  I tried to go with the above approach as much as possible and applied a fair, consistent system across the board, so we’ll see where the chips fall.

So here we go (asterisks denote conference champions):

Rank Team Record F/+ AI
1 Ala* (12-1) 1 124.6
2 Clem* (13-0) 2 140.125
3 Mich St* (12-1) 8 148.1333333
4 Stan* (11-2) 10 163.3571429
5 OU* (11-1) 3 199.8571429
6 Iowa (12-1) 24 207.4166667
7 Fla (10-3) 18 209.2
8 OSU (11-1) 4 216.3636364
9 ND (10-2) 5 227
10 BG* (10-3) 23 242.7
11 OkSt (10-2) 28 254.2
12 Hou* (12-1) 32 258.0833333
13 Temple (10-3) 33 265.2
14 WKU* (11-2) 17 265.2727273
15 NW (10-2) 44 265.4
16 TCU (10-2) 13 271.5
17 USC (8-5) 16 282
18 Mich (9-3) 11 288
19 UNC (11-2) 19 299.0909091
20 FSU (10-2) 9 304.9
21 LSU (8-3) 14 312.125
22 Ole Miss (9-3) 6 314.7777778
23 Miss St (8-4) 25 326.875
24 Uga (9-3) 34 328.3333333
25 Memph (9-3) 27 330

The playoff committee hasn’t been talking about Bowling Green for a New Year’s Six game (all recent talk has focused on Houston), but they’ve got a case.

Rank Team Record F/+ AI
26 Tenn (8-4) 20 338
27 Ore (9-3) 29 343.1111111
28 App St (10-2) 39 353
29 Utah (9-3) 31 354.2222222
30 Navy (9-2) 12 358.4444444
31 Bay (9-3) 7 359
32 Mia (8-4) 63 359.875
33 Wis (9-3) 35 363.8888889
34 Pitt (8-4) 41 370.5
35 BYU (9-3) 36 384.6666667
36 aTm (8-4) 38 385.25
37 UCLA (8-4) 30 400.875
38 Toledo (9-2) 22 401.8888889
39 SouthMiss (9-4) 50 417.8888889
40 TT (7-5) 52 418.4285714
41 USF (8-4) 37 418.75
42 SDSt* (10-3) 51 429.9
43 Ark St* (9-3) 71 430.8888889
44 Cal (7-5) 45 437.2857143
45 PSU (7-5) 47 448.8571429
46 NCSt (7-5) 42 466.5714286
47 Lville (7-5) 43 471.8571429
48 Ark (7-5) 15 473.5714286
49 Marsh (9-3) 54 478.7777778
50 W. Mich (7-5) 48 481.7142857

How about Arkansas State?  Another conference title.  Another new coach.  Another conference title.  Another…

Rank Team Record F/+ AI
51 Aub (6-6) 56 482
52 WVU (7-5) 26 482.7142857
53 WSU (8-4) 55 511.375
54 N. Illinois (8-5) 53 523.75
55 LaTech (8-4) 62 529.375
56 Cinci (7-5) 65 546.5714286
57 Ga South (8-4) 46 551.125
58 AF (8-5) 61 553.125
59 Ohio (8-4) 73 554.125
60 C. Mich (7-5) 66 555.2857143
61 K-State (6-6) 79 568.6666667
62 Boise (8-4) 49 582.375
63 Akron (7-5) 80 601.1428571
64 Duke (7-5) 72 605.2857143
65 Ind (6-6) 64 608.8333333
66 Ariz (6-6) 86 632.8333333
67 Wash (6-6) 21 645.8333333
68 Minn (5-7) 60 653.2
69 ASU (6-6) 57 655.1666667
70 Tulsa (6-6) 95 656.8333333
71 M Tenn (7-5) 77 661.2857143
72 VaTech (6-6) 58 670.8333333
73 Uconn (6-6) 78 703.5
74 CSU (7-5) 83 713.7142857
75 Illinois (5-7) 67 793

I’m proud of my Wildcats clawing their way to bowl eligibility.

Rank Team Record F/+ AI
76 Texas (5-7) 82 794.2
77 UtSt (6-6) 59 795.8333333
78 Mizz (5-7) 75 840.6
79 ECU (5-7) 70 872
80 UNM (7-5) 98 882.1428571
81 Ken (5-7) 88 903.6
82 Neb (5-7) 40 916.8
83 Vand (4-8) 84 981.75
84 Syr (4-8) 85 1026.25
85 Nev (6-6) 99 1052.833333
86 Ga St (6-6) 97 1083.166667
87 Rut (4-8) 102 1091.5
88 UVA (4-8) 81 1132.5
89 ODU (5-7) 116 1154.8
90 SouthAla (5-7) 106 1168.4
91 Rice (5-7) 123 1191.4
92 Buff (5-7) 91 1198.8
93 SJ St (5-7) 92 1200.2
94 Maryland (3-9) 76 1225.333333
95 FIU (5-7) 110 1233.6
96 Colo (4-9) 93 1281.75
97 UTEP (5-7) 125 1299.2
98 IowaSt (3-9) 74 1317.666667
99 WF (3-9) 89 1512.333333
100 Troy (4-8) 96 1579.75

Likewise, props to Charlie Strong for that win over Baylor.

Rank Team Record F/+ AI
101 Idaho (4-8) 115 1616.75
102 GT (3-9) 68 1618.333333
103 SoCar (3-9) 87 1757.333333
104 BC (3-9) 69 1784.666667
105 Ball St (3-9) 108 1905.333333
106 ULL (4-8) 101 1954.5
107 Fresno (3-9) 105 2095.333333
108 KentSt (3-9) 109 2118.666667
109 Tulane (3-9) 119 2128.666667
110 Umass (3-9) 100 2234.666667
111 Miami Oh (3-9) 111 2258.666667
112 UNLV (3-9) 103 2270.666667
113 FAU (3-9) 94 2490
114 Tx St (3-9) 112 2492.333333
115 NM St (3-9) 117 2510.666667
116 OregSt (2-10) 114 2519.5
117 Hawaii (3-10) 122 2536.666667
118 UTSA (3-9) 107 2632
119 Pur (2-10) 90 2663.5
120 SMU (2-10) 104 2913
121 La-Mon (2-11) 120 4048
122 Wyo (2-10) 118 4104
123 Char (2-10) 124 4378
124 Army (2-9) 113 4630
125 KU (0-12) 126 6402
126 UNT (1-11) 127 8169
127 UCF (0-12) 128 8612
128 E. Mich (1-11) 121 8676

I’ve got nothing else.  Sleep beckons.

Week 13 rankings
Week 12 rankings

Week 11 rankings

Week 10 rankings
Week 9 rankings
Week 8 rankings

Week 7 rankings

Week 6 rankings

Week 5 rankings

Week 4 rankings
Week 3 rankings

Week 2 rankings

Anyway, more to discuss potentially, so feel free to comment below or shoot me a note on Facebook.  Thanks for reading!

 

 

2 thoughts on “We’ve got a Top 4 in the Achievement Index”

  1. I, too, dislike the Gators getting a pass. But then again I dislike the Gators when they don’t get a pass.

    And FSU should be ranked much higher.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *