The College Football Playoff Committee has a Top 4, in order, of Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State and Notre Dame.
The Achievement Index’s Top 4 is Clemson, Ohio State, Notre Dame and Oklahoma State.
That isn’t far off, and we both have rewarded the Tigers for their performance to date. Where we differ is Alabama vs. Oklahoma State, and well, look at the names on the jerseys to explain that one.
Oh sure, you could argue that Alabama has played a tougher schedule (true) and you could also argue against the Cowboys based on margin of victory/general prettiness (also true). But I’ve made my own feelings on this clear: The Tide is getting a pass for a home loss to a three-loss team (Ole Miss). No need to belabor it. And truth be told, the Tide is surging up my rankings in a major way. In a couple of weeks, Alabama might actually deserve that Top 4 spot … it’s still hard to project.
Anyway, I can tell you right now who would have the biggest gripe in my system, and it isn’t Alabama…
Before we get to this week’s rankings, here once again is the rundown of my methodology:
- Each team is ascribed a score derived from the combined efficiency rankings produced by the fine folks at Football Outsiders (specifically, Bill Connelley and Brian Fremeau), termed the “F/+” rankings. The basic gist of each set of rankings that goes into this merged list — individually the “FEI” and the “S&P+ Ratings” — is to evaluate a team based on its efficiency on individual plays. If you want a general sense of how “good” a team is, with only a few exceptions, you’re going to get an accurate reading from these.
- The scores pulled from the F/+ do not factor into an individual team’s ranking, however. Rather, they provide the basis for evaluating who said team has played. So for example, Wisconsin didn’t get any credit in regards to its own ranking for being the No. 32 team in the F/+, but it did get credit for facing Alabama, which ranks at No. 1. In reverse, Alabama didn’t get credit for being No. 1, but did get credit for beating No. 32. This is all about accomplishments. And for simplicity’s sake, all teams from below the FBS level got ascribed the same value: 129, which is one slot lower than the lowest FBS team (128).
- Basic weighting is applied such that, in general, road wins>neutral wins>home wins>bye weeks>road losses>neutral losses>home losses. There are discrepancies such that a particularly egregious home loss can hurt a team more than two road losses, or a loss to No. 1 can actually help a team more than being off that week. The actual weighting involved is the wild card here, as I expect I may tweak it some as we go along. Lots of philosophical debates are involved in this process (For example: Is a road win worth more than two home wins? And is a neutral site loss to No. 1 worse or better than a road loss to No. 8?). These questions can go on for days, honestly, and much of it is dependent on an individual’s point of view. I tried to go with the above approach as much as possible and applied a fair, consistent system across the board, so we’ll see where the chips fall.
And one final note … this is through games completed as of Nov. 15 (no last-minute Mac-tion additions; those will be added in due course at the conclusion of next week). So with all that said, here we go:
| Rank | Team | Record | F/+ | AI |
| 1 | Clem | (10-0) | 2 | 186.3 |
| 2 | OSU | (10-0) | 5 | 188.6 |
| 3 | ND | (9-1) | 4 | 193.6666667 |
| 4 | OkSt | (10-0) | 16 | 205.7 |
| 5 | Iowa | (10-0) | 23 | 211.7 |
| 6 | Hou | (10-0) | 28 | 226 |
| 7 | Fla | (9-1) | 11 | 245.3333333 |
| 8 | Ala | (9-1) | 1 | 249.6666667 |
| 9 | Bay | (8-1) | 7 | 308.125 |
| 10 | TCU | (9-1) | 24 | 318.7777778 |
| 11 | Navy | (8-1) | 10 | 340 |
| 12 | Mich St | (9-1) | 15 | 426.2222222 |
| 13 | Memph | (8-2) | 25 | 462.125 |
| 14 | NW | (8-2) | 54 | 463.5 |
| 15 | Wis | (8-2) | 32 | 476.375 |
| 16 | Mich | (8-2) | 6 | 478.375 |
| 17 | LSU | (7-2) | 12 | 485.5714286 |
| 18 | Uga | (7-3) | 35 | 512.1428571 |
| 19 | BG | (8-2) | 21 | 525.5 |
| 20 | USC | (7-3) | 9 | 582.4285714 |
| 21 | Pitt | (7-3) | 39 | 583.4285714 |
| 22 | Temple | (8-2) | 45 | 598.875 |
| 23 | FSU | (8-2) | 14 | 653.125 |
| 24 | Tenn | (6-4) | 17 | 665.3333333 |
| 25 | Toledo | (8-1) | 26 | 693.125 |
Ho hum, lots of good teams here. But wait, someone’s missing…
| Rank | Team | Record | F/+ | AI |
| 26 | Miss St | (7-3) | 20 | 694 |
| 27 | WKU | (8-2) | 31 | 728.75 |
| 28 | Utah | (8-2) | 19 | 731.375 |
| 29 | OU | (9-1) | 3 | 738.6666667 |
| 30 | Ole Miss | (7-3) | 13 | 749.1428571 |
| 31 | Stan | (8-2) | 8 | 806.875 |
| 32 | UNC | (9-1) | 18 | 814.7777778 |
| 33 | Ga South | (7-2) | 53 | 819.4285714 |
| 34 | App St | (8-2) | 38 | 869.5 |
| 35 | Mia | (6-4) | 71 | 945.8333333 |
| 36 | WVU | (5-4) | 29 | 957 |
| 37 | aTm | (7-3) | 46 | 979.8571429 |
| 38 | Ore | (7-3) | 33 | 1003.857143 |
| 39 | PSU | (7-3) | 36 | 1021.285714 |
| 40 | TT | (6-5) | 52 | 1030.833333 |
| 41 | Cal | (6-4) | 40 | 1045.333333 |
| 42 | AF | (7-3) | 65 | 1071.285714 |
| 43 | BYU | (7-3) | 37 | 1114.714286 |
| 44 | SouthMiss | (7-3) | 63 | 1122.714286 |
| 45 | Marsh | (9-2) | 43 | 1130.333333 |
| 46 | W. Mich | (6-4) | 60 | 1207.5 |
| 47 | LaTech | (7-3) | 41 | 1227.571429 |
| 48 | N. Illinois | (7-3) | 48 | 1236.285714 |
| 49 | Ark St | (7-3) | 69 | 1252.714286 |
| 50 | Lville | (6-4) | 44 | 1264.666667 |
Oklahoma is No. 29. Arguably the hottest team in the country, the team that just punked Baylor in Waco, and the team that many people are already making a case for in the Playoff 4 … is No. 29. Why? The Texas loss is really awful. I mean, it’s really, really awful. The Longhorns boast a losing record, a No. 71 achievement ranking, and an even worse No. 84 F/+ (efficiency) ranking. I like this OU team and on a subjective basis, I totally buy them as a playoff team. But my system says they don’t deserve it. They don’t come close.
| Rank | Team | Record | F/+ | AI |
| 51 | NCSt | (6-4) | 34 | 1352.833333 |
| 52 | UCLA | (7-3) | 30 | 1364 |
| 53 | USF | (6-4) | 57 | 1406.5 |
| 54 | Ariz | (6-5) | 81 | 1524.5 |
| 55 | Aub | (5-5) | 61 | 1550 |
| 56 | Illinois | (5-5) | 66 | 1599.4 |
| 57 | Cinci | (6-4) | 49 | 1608.166667 |
| 58 | Ark | (6-4) | 22 | 1609.333333 |
| 59 | Boise | (7-3) | 50 | 1862 |
| 60 | WSU | (7-3) | 51 | 1871.571429 |
| 61 | SDSt | (7-3) | 56 | 1875 |
| 62 | ASU | (5-5) | 59 | 2132.8 |
| 63 | Duke | (6-4) | 64 | 2307.833333 |
| 64 | Tulsa | (5-5) | 89 | 2325 |
| 65 | Ohio | (6-4) | 79 | 2412.666667 |
| 66 | C. Mich | (5-5) | 58 | 2463.8 |
| 67 | Minn | (4-6) | 62 | 2564.75 |
| 68 | Mizz | (5-5) | 72 | 2727 |
| 69 | M Tenn | (5-5) | 80 | 2773.4 |
| 70 | Akron | (5-5) | 88 | 2946.8 |
| 71 | Texas | (4-6) | 84 | 2947.75 |
| 72 | UtSt | (5-5) | 47 | 2996.6 |
| 73 | Vand | (4-6) | 75 | 3166.5 |
| 74 | VaTech | (5-5) | 55 | 3183.2 |
| 75 | ODU | (5-5) | 121 | 3260.2 |
Boise State suffered a bizarre home loss to New Mexico on the blue turf Saturday, knocking the Broncos down 26 spots this week. Thems the breaks.
| Rank | Team | Record | F/+ | AI |
| 76 | Wash | (4-6) | 27 | 3365 |
| 77 | IowaSt | (3-7) | 73 | 3404.666667 |
| 78 | SouthAla | (5-4) | 106 | 3414.2 |
| 79 | Ind | (4-6) | 68 | 3424 |
| 80 | UNM | (6-4) | 100 | 3455.833333 |
| 81 | Ken | (4-6) | 91 | 3491.75 |
| 82 | Buff | (5-5) | 87 | 3558.4 |
| 83 | K-State | (3-6) | 76 | 3791 |
| 84 | Nev | (6-4) | 99 | 3825.833333 |
| 85 | ECU | (4-6) | 74 | 3876 |
| 86 | NM St | (2-7) | 122 | 4051.875 |
| 87 | Neb | (5-6) | 42 | 4136.2 |
| 88 | CSU | (5-5) | 78 | 4225.6 |
| 89 | Rut | (3-7) | 107 | 4490 |
| 90 | FIU | (5-6) | 104 | 4562.8 |
| 91 | Uconn | (5-5) | 83 | 4719.666667 |
| 92 | Syr | (3-7) | 85 | 4997.666667 |
| 93 | UVA | (3-7) | 86 | 5037.666667 |
| 94 | Colo | (4-7) | 92 | 5103.75 |
| 95 | Rice | (4-6) | 124 | 5432.25 |
| 96 | Maryland | (2-8) | 77 | 5599 |
| 97 | GT | (3-7) | 67 | 5600.333333 |
| 98 | SoCar | (3-7) | 82 | 5756.333333 |
| 99 | WF | (3-7) | 94 | 5835.666667 |
| 100 | ULL | (4-5) | 102 | 5870 |
The lowest team with a winning record is currently Nevada, whose best win is Buffalo. These two things are related.
| Rank | Team | Record | F/+ | AI |
| 101 | SJ St | (4-6) | 96 | 6206 |
| 102 | UTEP | (4-6) | 128 | 6716.5 |
| 103 | BC | (3-7) | 70 | 6866 |
| 104 | Tulane | (3-7) | 114 | 6955 |
| 105 | KentSt | (3-7) | 108 | 7813 |
| 106 | Fresno | (3-7) | 112 | 8082.333333 |
| 107 | Ball St | (3-7) | 109 | 8110.333333 |
| 108 | UNLV | (3-7) | 101 | 8582.333333 |
| 109 | Troy | (3-7) | 93 | 8832 |
| 110 | Idaho | (3-7) | 113 | 9475.666667 |
| 111 | OregSt | (2-8) | 111 | 10007.5 |
| 112 | Ga St | (3-6) | 98 | 11105.66667 |
| 113 | Pur | (2-8) | 90 | 11191.5 |
| 114 | Umass | (2-8) | 97 | 15407.5 |
| 115 | Tx St | (2-7) | 116 | 15572.5 |
| 116 | Miami Oh | (2-9) | 115 | 17648 |
| 117 | Hawaii | (2-9) | 117 | 18161.5 |
| 118 | UTSA | (2-8) | 103 | 18553 |
| 119 | Char | (2-8) | 118 | 20277.5 |
| 120 | FAU | (2-8) | 95 | 20785 |
| 121 | Army | (2-8) | 110 | 22185 |
| 122 | KU | (0-10) | 125 | 30710 |
| 123 | SMU | (1-9) | 105 | 30801 |
| 124 | La-Mon | (1-9) | 119 | 33627 |
| 125 | UNT | (1-9) | 127 | 35179 |
| 126 | UCF | (0-10) | 126 | 43820 |
| 127 | Wyo | (1-10) | 120 | 45747 |
| 128 | E. Mich | (1-10) | 123 | 51120 |
Nebraska’s loss to Purdue is looking worse by the week.
Week 10 rankings
Week 9 rankings
Week 8 rankings
Week 7 rankings
Week 6 rankings
Week 5 rankings
Week 4 rankings
Week 3 rankings
Week 2 rankings
As always, let me know your thoughts and feel free to share with friends, family, and special persons of import. See any errors in record/placement? Probably a typo since I did most of this by hand, but I’d appreciate hearing about it anyway … I might have goofed up something in the rankings themselves.