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The College Football Playoff Committee has a Top 4, in order, of Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State and Notre Dame.

The Achievement Index’s Top 4 is Clemson, Ohio State, Notre Dame and Oklahoma State.

That isn’t far off, and we both have rewarded the Tigers for their performance to date.  Where we differ is Alabama vs. Oklahoma State, and well, look at the names on the jerseys to explain that one.

Oh sure, you could argue that Alabama has played a tougher schedule (true) and you could also argue against the Cowboys based on margin of victory/general prettiness (also true).  But I’ve made my own feelings on this clear: The Tide is getting a pass for a home loss to a three-loss team (Ole Miss).  No need to belabor it.  And truth be told, the Tide is surging up my rankings in a major way.  In a couple of weeks, Alabama might actually deserve that Top 4 spot … it’s still hard to project.

Anyway, I can tell you right now who would have the biggest gripe in my system, and it isn’t Alabama…

Continue reading Achievement Index likes Clemson this week

The number of undefeated teams in the country has been whittled down to six. And yet the top-ranked team in the Achievement Index is one-loss Notre Dame.

Lovely, eh?

A significant portion of the country is less than pleased whenever the Irish get any kind of advantage over their opponents, and this team getting ranked ahead of several undefeated squads would, on the surface, qualify.

To that I reply: Look at the schedule.

Continue reading Notre Dame haters rejoice: Irish are No. 1 in Achievement Index

I’ve run the numbers, and they tell me the playoff committee is batting .250, at least in terms of rewarding the teams that are currently the most deserving.

That’s an important distinction, as some look at this system as trying to pick the best teams, which just COMPLETELY misses the point and COMPLETELY devalues the regular season.  Why play the games if you aren’t going to use them in evaluating teams?

When the committee put Alabama into its initial set of rankings, it created a firestorm of controversy, due primarily to the fact that Alabama had a loss and plenty of other teams didn’t.  The Tide was getting a pass.

Well, yes and no.  It’s true the Tide is getting a pass right now, and it’s indeed okay to call the committee out for this, but it’s not just about the record … it’s about who the Tide has beaten and lost to.

Continue reading First Playoff 4 *should* be Michigan State, Notre Dame, Memphis and Clemson (Week 9 Achievement Index)

I’ve tried to be patient with you, Achievement Index, I have.  But your refusal to stop spitting out weird results is testing me.

Severely.

I’m 99 percent of the way there to adjusting the weighting structure, and while there were many reasons for me to consider this, 6-1 Oklahoma being ranked several spots below 4-3 Miami (they of the fired coach for underperformance Miami) … that’s a pretty darn big one.

Continue reading We’ve nearly reached a tipping point in the Week 8 Achievement Index

This week’s Top 4 in the Achievement Index is Big 10 heavy. A week after the Big 12 surged into prominence, Michigan State’s dramatic last-second win at rival Michigan coupled with Iowa’s dismantling of Northwestern pushed those two teams into the playoff field (if it started today).  The Top 4 for Week 7, in order, is Michigan State, Utah, Iowa and TCU.

Of course, all of those teams are undefeated, and if they remain so, they’ll continue to look good for making the season’s Final 4 (though it is naturally impossible for both Iowa and Michigan State to both finish undefeated).  What’s more interesting is looking at the hierarchy of one-loss teams, and how those teams shake out.  And in general, a theme emerges: Unlike the pollsters, the raw data doesn’t care about the logos on your helmets or the tradition your program boasts.  It also doesn’t care about your statistical profile. Instead, the data looks at one factor above all others: Who did you lose to?

I am fundamentally okay with this (for now), because this rationale was what created the playoff system in the first place.

Continue reading Week 7 Achievement Index: Who you lose to matters

Two teams from the Big 12 have earned their way into the Top 4 of the Achievement Index this week, as TCU and Oklahoma State each gutted out tough road wins in conference play against highly rated opponents.

Another Big 12 team, Baylor, has been given the benefit of the doubt by the pollsters and talking heads for winning big, but the level of achievement doesn’t mesh with the national impression.  The Bears have avoided losing, and if they continue to do that, they’ll be there at the end (and they will likewise face tougher competition to get there), but for now, the national media is putting the cart before the horse.  The Bears haven’t earned it.

Contrast that with the case of the Cowboys, still largely unnoticed in the national conversation.  Oklahoma State has three true road wins under its belt (vs. two for Baylor), a road win against the No. 25 team in efficiency (Baylor’s best road win = vs. No. 107), and a home win against the No. 19 team in efficiency (Baylor’s best win = vs. No. 37).  It’s no contest.

TCU is the rare case of the pollsters getting it right despite themselves.  The Horned Frogs have seen their efficiency numbers bounce around as they fight through injuries. As a result, they haven’t always passed the “eye test,” but that hasn’t prevented them from continuing to hold fairly strong in the traditional polls.  TCU has three road wins, against No. 19, No. 37, and No. 49.

The national collective will freak if two Big 12 teams make the playoff a year after the league was shut out.  We’re very far away from that happening, but a dispassionate appraisal of the current landscape suggests it’s not as outlandish a thought as it might generally be considered.

Continue reading Big 12 riding high in Week 6 Achievement Index

I’m on vacation, so this is the short version of this week’s rankings.

If I am so inclined, I may expand on this some as time allows.

Continue reading Efficiency rankings: the short version (Week 5)

Utah has earned platitudes this week for its dominance on the road of Oregon.  Likewise, UCLA got a big win in the desert, knocking off Arizona and has been fawned over ever since.  Each team came into the week with strong resumes, so it’s no surprise this pair of Pac 12 squads sit atop the Achievement Index this week.

And they deserve the credit.  It’s refreshing to see teams given their due after they’ve earned it on the field (that’s the whole point of this exercise in the first place).  But another team from their conference is flying under the radar still, despite a 4-0 start that includes a pair of road wins against Power 5 teams.

Continue reading Pac 12 team — no, that other one — no, THAT other one — showing strong in Achievement Index